Reform UK intends to proceed with the by-election as quickly as possible, according to sources. The party will initiate the parliamentary formalities immediately, which will involve Nigel Farage being given a Crown appointment, either as Crown Steward and Bailiff of the Chiltern Hundreds or Crown Steward and Bailiff of the Manor of Northstead, thus barring him from being an MP.
Once Farage has been appointed to one of these positions and the Clacton seat is vacated, a writ can be moved in the Commons to trigger a by-election while Parliament is still in session and before its summer break begins at the end of next week.
This could result in a by-election taking place at some point next month, coinciding with the start of a new government led by Andy Burnham.
The question now is how Reform’s opponents will react to this development. They must decide whether to put up candidates or not. Restore Britain, led by former Reform MP Rupert Lowe, has already announced that it will not stand.
Reform is goading Labour into participating, claiming that it would be Burnham’s first significant test. However, the Labour party has described the by-election as a “gimmick”, with Prime Minister Andy Burnham, currently attending the Nato Summit in Ankara, Turkey, labelling it a “desperate stunt”.
There is precedent for opponents to refrain from standing in such situations, arguing that they do not want to endorse what they perceive as a publicity stunt. In 2008, Conservative MP David Davis resigned his seat of Haltemprice and Howden as part of a campaign about civil liberties, and neither Labour nor the Liberal Democrats stood against him.
It is worth noting that this by-election does not bring an end to the investigation being conducted by the Standards Commissioner, which could potentially lead to a recall petition and another by-election.
Some in Parliament envision a scenario where Nigel Farage wins one by-election, only to face another. This would occur if Parliament deemed it an appropriate punishment and 10% of those on the electoral roll in Clacton signed a recall petition demanding one.
Reform is effectively attempting to seize back the agenda and gain attention. The summer is likely to be marked by a split screen: a new prime minister, Andy Burnham, on one side, and his major political rival, Nigel Farage, on the other.
