INDIA TO OVERTAKE CHINA AS WORLD’S MOST POPULOUS NATION
Experts said China, which has more than 1.4 billion people, still faces population challenges such as stress on its infrastructure.
“China is not about to run out of people. It’s still a huge population,” said Dr Donaldson.
“The fear is that they’ve overcorrected, that they’re going to have too many elderly people, too few young people, which will have major effects on the economy and on China’s future.”
The country’s birth rate last year was just 6.77 births per 1,000 people, down from a rate of 7.52 births in 2021 and marking the lowest birth rate on record.
The death rate, the highest since 1974 during the Cultural Revolution, was 7.37 deaths per 1,000 people, compared to a rate of 7.18 deaths in 2021.
Dr Gietel-Basten pointed out that countries with an ageing population will face a strain on their healthcare and social welfare systems. There will be a need to keep the older population as healthy and as active as possible.
Such countries also have to ensure that their smaller workforce is productive and reach their full potential, he added.
“China has got to be able to do more with the younger population. It has to enable them to realise their full potential, to try and balance this new demographic system.”
On predictions that India will overtake China as the world’s most populous nation this year, Dr Gietel-Basten said: “Geopolitically, maybe China loses the bragging rights… But in terms of economic growth, this is much more than population size, and even population structure.”
A strong economy can be built through the development of decent jobs and education that caters to the needs of the labour market, among other things, he added.
“If you put all of those things together, then obviously India is behind China on a number of those different metrics,” said Dr Gietel-Basten. “So it’s not over for China by any means.”
Source: CNA
