Defending Taiwan against a Chinese invasion would come at a huge cost for the United States, Japan and Taiwan, a highly advanced war-game simulation has found.
In the most comprehensive unclassified simulation of a conflict over Taiwan, the US-based Centre for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) found a Chinese amphibious invasion of the Taiwan would be defeated, but the conflict would come at a massive cost for all primary combatants.
The CSIS tested 24 different iterations of the simulation, with the most likely version of the scenario involving Australia as a part player.
The findings come amidst reports China is intensifying military exercises in the Taiwan strait, with China Military Online reporting “combat readiness” exercises being carried out in the “waters and airspace around the Taiwan Island” by the Chinese People’s Liberation Army (PLA).
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“The exercise focused on land strikes, sea assaults and other subjects, aiming to test the troops’ joint combat capability and resolutely counter the collusive and provocative acts of the external forces and the ‘Taiwan independence’ separatist forces,” a PLA spokesperson said.
While there were iterations of the wargame that produce a victory for China – such as a scenario where Taiwan stands alone – the combined forces of the US, Japan and Taiwan defeated the Chinese invasion and maintained Taiwan’s independence in most of the scenario’s tested.
“However, this defence came at high cost. The United States and its allies lost dozens of ships, hundreds of aircraft, and tens of thousands of servicemembers,” the CSIS report found.
“Taiwan saw its economy devastated,” and “the high losses damaged the U.S. global position for many years.”
The report found that China would also suffer heavy losses and the failure to occupy Taiwan “might destabilise the Chinese Communist party rule.”
The CSIS found that in the most likely outcome of the conflict, the US would lose 270 combat aircraft and 17 warships – including two US aircraft carriers – while Japan would lose 112 combat aircraft and 26 warships.
Even in the scenarios in which Taiwan survived, the island nation would be left with a severely degraded military, a damaged economy, and population suffering without basic utilities like electricity.
China’s losses would also be high; 155 combat aircraft and 138 warships in the most likely scenario.
While the simulation did not directly track military casualties, the CSIS report estimated that the US would suffer almost 7,000 casualties (with 3,200 servicemembers losing their lives).
However, this would be dwarfed by China’s casualties, with 7,000 Chinese service members being lost in ground combat (with roughly a third being killed), 15,000 lost at sea (with half assumed killed), and over 30,000 Chinese servicemembers becoming prisoners of war.
The simulation found there were four conditions that needed to be met for a Chinese invasion to be defeated.
- Taiwan forces must be able to hold the line and contain Chinese beachheads;
- the US must be able to use its bases in Japan for combat operations;
- the US must have long-range ant-ship missiles to hit the PLA Navy from afar and en masse;
- and the Taiwan must be fully armed before the conflict begins, as China’s ability to isolate the island nation would make it impossible for Taiwan’s allies to deliver arms after the invasion has begun – meaning there can be no repeat of the Ukraine strategy.
Australia’s involvement
Noting that a conflict over Taiwan would not happen in a vacuum, the CSIS report predicted Australia would be dragged into the conflict, but it would not play a major role in hostilities over Taiwan – instead focusing efforts in the South China Sea.
“Because of its close relationship with the United States and the stationing of U.S. forces there in peacetime, Australia would give access, basing, and overflight,” the CSIS report found.
“Australian forces would participate in the South China Sea fight but be unavailable as a result for operations around Taiwan.” (The simulation did not involve a analysis of this combat in the South China Sea.)
In 2021, then-Defence Minister Peter Dutton said it would be “inconceivable” for Australian not to join the United States if it chose to defend Taiwan.
Official US policy is intentionally ambiguous about whether the US would defend Taiwan – a position known as Strategic Ambiguity.
And while US President Joe Biden has stated repeatedly that the US would defend Taiwan, these statements have been walked back by White House and State Department officials and it is unclear whether they were intended as a signal to China or were one of the aging-US president’s many gaffs.
For his part, Defence Minister Richard Marles has made a point of maintaining Australia’s own strategic ambiguity.
“We welcome American retaining its presence in the Indo-Pacific,” Mr Marles told Sky News Australia in September.
“We remain committed to supporting the peace and stability across the Taiwan strait and ensuring that there’s no unilateral change in the status quo.”
China’s commitment to reunification
The Chinese Communist Party views Taiwan as a rogue provence – despite the independent nation having never been ruled by the CCP – and Chinese President Xi Jinping has previously refused to rule out pursuing reunification by force.
Commenting on the visit of German lawmakers to Taiwan, a China’s foreign ministry spokesperson Wang Wenbin said the Taiwan question was at “very core of China’s core interests”.
“There is only one China in the world and Taiwan is an inalienable part of China’s territory,” Mr Wang said.
“We urge the German politicians to earnestly abide by the one-China principle and immediately stop colluding and interacting with or sending wrong signals to ‘Taiwan independence’ separatist forces.
“We will take necessary measures to resolutely defend China’s sovereignty and territorial integrity.”
Source: Sky News
